中国と欧州の間の航空旅客の伸びを予想

中国と欧州の間の航空旅客の伸びを予想したもの。どのような前提で試算したのかわからないが、まあ楽観的な予想が多いだろうからこういう結論は予想できる。それにしても、である。

Randy's Blog

787, China, and the next 20 years of flying

2 February, 2005

Well, there was big news while I was on the road last week. Great news from China, and a new name for a new airplane.

Our new airplane is now the Boeing 787 Dreamliner. It's a plane designed with a market like China in mind. And based on last week's announcement, the 787 is just what China has in mind, too.

60 orders from 6 Chinese airlines is a very big deal. Aviation analysts have been saying so for days. And not just because of the number of orders. As one expert said, it's a real endorsement of our point-to-point philosophy.

Let me explain that a bit.

China is the world's fastest growing aviation market. And we're convinced that the world's most advanced airplanes, the 787 and 777, are going to serve most of that market in the coming years.

As an example, take a look at the current nonstop markets between China and Europe.

The first map shows 2003, the base year of our forecast, there were 26 Europe to China city pairs, with 406 weekly flights. You can click on the map to enlarge it.

The second map shows what we believe is going to happen in the next 20 years or so:

Incredible, isn't it? With the increase in air travel, with greater competition and with the right-sized airplanes available, we expect the nonstop markets between China and Europe to more than quadruple - to 114 by the year 2023, with a potential for even greater growth. And the weekly frequencies will increase at roughly that same rate as well, from 406 to 1,674.

(By the way, if you click on the map to enlarge it, the cities shown in blue don't have nonstop service to Europe in our forecast right now, but they very well could during next 20 years.)

Small to intermediate-sized twin-aisle airplanes like the 787 and the 777 will satisfy this growth. Very large airplanes will not be filling that need. They just can't provide the level of service that we as passengers are demanding.

What makes us so sure about all this? This bar chart gives some insight into the future of global airplane travel:

Just compare the populations of the largest metropolitan areas of China with those in Europe and North America.

China has 12 cities with populations of five million or more as compared to just five metro areas each for Europe and North America.

Those huge Asian markets will need the right sizes of airplanes to fly frequently between new city pairs throughout the world.

In my mind, the potential for new city pairs and frequency of flights between China and the world is virtually unlimited.

Think about it. Why wouldn't the people of these important Asian population centers want to enjoy the same kind of service to the world that Europeans and North Americans have?