Marginal Revolution: Will France ratify the EU Constitution?

ここでもbetではほぼ均衡の様ですね。

リンク: Marginal Revolution: Will France ratify the EU Constitution?.

Right now the betting market says the chance is a bit more than forty percent.  The site, with regular updates, is here.  Here is Lynne Kiesling on whether France should ratify. 

My take: The Constitution violates many of my political ideals, if only by further cementing a non-accountable Brussels bureaucracy.  Nonetheless the EU is a godsend for Eastern Europe, if only by making democracy permanent there.  We cannot take that for granted, mostly because Russia has not yet achieved political equilibrium.  The benefits for Eastern Europe dwarf any impact on the in-any-case sluggish Western Europe, so let's root for a smooth constitutional process.  The EU will have plenty of time to fall apart later on.

Posted by Tyler